The cumulative impact of two consecutive severe rainy seasons, coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic, insecurity, and pests, has led to a rapid increase in humanitarian demand in the Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) area of Kenya, leading to the announcement of the President of Kenya on September 8, 2021. Japan triggered a national disaster. The short rains in 2020 (October to December) and the long rains in 2021 (March to May) are very poor throughout ASAL County. The two rainy seasons are characterized by late rainfall in most counties and uneven distribution of rainfall in time and space. In addition, forecasts indicate that the upcoming short rainy season (October to December 2021) may be below average, coupled with a negative Indian Ocean dipole.
According to the latest Integrated Stage Classification (IPC), at least 2.1 million people are now severely food insecure and adopt irreversible response strategies to meet their minimum food needs. It is expected that this number will increase to Nearly 2.4 million people analyzed. This will include an estimated 368,000 people in a state of emergency (IPC stage 4) and 2 million people in a crisis (IPC stage 3), almost three of the number of people facing severe food insecurity from October to December 2020 (852,000). It is estimated that starting from November 2021, there are nine counties with the largest number of counties in IPC stage 3 and above: Turkana, Mandela, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Kwale,
Kitui, Tana River and Isiolo. Based on the possibility of insufficient rainfall in the upcoming short rainy season (October to December), food insecurity is expected to worsen in the future.
The multiple shocks that communities have suffered in the past year have severely affected their livelihoods. It is expected that the yield of the long rainy season in the marginal area in 2021 will be 42% to 70% lower than the long-term average (LTA) of corn, the LTA of green grams is 61% to 89% lower than that of LTA, and the LTA of cowpea is 58% to 86% lower than that of LTA. For farmers, a lower-than-average harvest leads to a reduction in family income. As family food stocks decline, it is difficult for families to buy food. According to the 2021 Long Rain Assessment led by the Ministry of Agriculture, household corn stocks in most marginal agricultural areas are 31% to 54% lower than the five-year average. It is expected that corn stocks will last for one to two months, while under normal circumstances it is Three or four months. Drought Administration (NDMA). In pastoral areas, below-average pasture renewal has had a negative impact on livestock production, resulting in lower-than-average milk production and consumption, and high staple food prices. The daily milk production of each household is 0.25 to 3 liters, while under normal conditions it is 2 to 6 liters. Similarly, compared with an average of 1 to 3 liters, the daily household milk consumption per household is 0.25 to 1.6 liters.
According to the latest IPC analysis of acute malnutrition, there are more than 465,200 children under the age of 5 and more than 93,300 pregnant or breastfeeding women in the ASAL region with severe malnutrition. Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, North Horr and Laisamis sub-counties in Marsabit County and Tiaty in Baringo County have severe nutritional status (IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Stage 4) and severe (IPC AMN Section 4). Phase 3) Tana River County and West Pokot County. Worryingly, acute malnutrition has exceeded the emergency threshold in many areas, affecting 15% to 30% of children in at least 8 counties. Low food and milk supplies, high morbidity, limited access to health and nutrition services, shortage of essential supplies to manage acute malnutrition and poor childcare practices, coupled with potential problems such as poverty, high illiteracy rates and poor infrastructure , Resulting in an abnormally high incidence of acute malnutrition in the entire pastoral area. In the coming period, the nutritional status of Turkana, Samburu, Mandela, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, North Hall and Lesamis is expected to deteriorate, especially affecting children and mothers if The short rains in 2021 will not perform well, and the nutritional status will deteriorate significantly as expected.
Access to water is an urgent issue for humans and livestock. Many open water sources—including rivers, water trays, and dams—have been depleted when the capacity of pastoral and marginal agricultural livelihoods and other open water sources reaches 20% to 40%. According to the latest NDMA monitoring, 87% of counties reported that the distance between households and the water source was above average, and 78% of counties reported that the distance between livestock and the water source was above average. The distance between families on foot to drinking water points has increased from an average of 1 to 5 kilometers in five years to an average of 2 to 6 kilometers. In most pastoral areas, the walking distance for livestock to return has also increased: in Marsabit, the walking distance is unusually high, ranging from 25 to 30 kilometers, but usually 15 to 20 kilometers; in Wajir, the walking distance for livestock is 15 to 20 kilometers. , About 3 to 4 times the normal distance of 5 kilometers.
According to the assessment of the ASAL Humanitarian Network, as herders have to travel longer distances to find water, food and feed for their livestock, tensions between communities have increased, and conflicts between communities have reportedly increased. According to the latest IPC analysis, it is expected that from September 2021 to October 2021 and the long-term rainfall from December 2021 to March to May 2022, atypical livestock migration will intensify. Due to the rapid deterioration of pasture resources in the coming period, migration to dry season grazing areas and other atypical routes is expected to intensify, which may increase the incidence of resource-based conflicts and disrupt markets, school education, livelihoods, and access to sanitation facilities And service opportunities